They didn't audit the model
Nov 5, 2014
Bishop Hill in Climate: Parliament, Climate: WG2

The National Audit Office has just issued a report into the UK's flood defences and declares that the country is not doing enough. Helpfully, the auditors report on the "risks to future sustainability", the first of which is as follows:

The projected impact of climate change on flood risk
2.16 The 2012 Climate Change Risk Assessment outlined that rising sea levels and increased rainfall will have a significant impact on flood risk. It noted that Northern Europe has had more frequent spells of very wet weather over the previous 40 years; that future winters will become wetter; and that rainfall will increase across all UK regions. Similarly, sea levels are expected to continue to rise and the rate of this rise is also expected to increase. The impact of climate change is one of 10 top issues the Department’s Chief Scientist recently raised concerning research and development issues facing the Department.

2.17 These changes will increase the load on flood protection assets, which in the medium to long term will require an increase in maintenance requirements and may increase operational costs to sustain current performance.

As readers here know, climate models have little or no ability to predict rainfall the various assessments of their skill varying between the offiical ("modest") and the more realistic ("useless"). The UK's Climate Change Risk Assessment is made even more risible by the fact that it is based on the UKCP09 climate predictions, the underlying climate model of which is known to contain a major flaw.

It was bad enough to see public policy being informed by a climate model; worse still to see it being informed by one with a proven flaw. To see the National Audit swallowing the whole charade as well is almost too much. 

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