The models are lousy and probably wrong. In which direction they are wrong is not clear at all, yet.
Eduardo Zorita's comments on climate models are interesting. Given the strong evidence that the models run too warm, I think he is being far too even handed, but perhaps more interesting is the way his words echo the terminology used by the UK's top climate modeller Brian Hoskins.
Interviewer: Tell us the war story. How bad were the climate models when you started out?
Brian Hoskins: Ah, they were pretty lousy, and they're still pretty lousy, really. They were terrible.
I think we could say that there is a consensus here, but rest assured that it a bad case of climate denial to suggest that GCMs are not suitable tools for policymakers.
Bishop Hill
Interesting to compare these comments to Keith Shine's description of the climate models to parliamentarians.
...state-of-the-art climate models, which are our embodiment of the laws of physics as applied to the atmosphere...
I was roundly criticised by some for suggesting that Shine's words were misleading.