The snail paper
Oct 20, 2014
Bishop Hill in Climate: WG2, Greens

Readers who have been following the saga of the extinction and resurrection of the Aldabra banded snail will be interested in this posting. As you no doubt recall, the snail was declared exctinct by researcher Justin Gerlach in 2007. His findings were hotly contested by another expert in the area, Oxford's Clive Hambler.

In their wisdom, the Royal Society, who had published Dr Gerlach's original paper decided that the rebuttal should not see the light of day, a decision that turned out to be a bit of a problem when the snail was rediscovered a few months ago. Dr Hambler has now published the rejected manuscript on his website and I have to say it makes rather interesting reading.

R. aldabrae has apparently existed in the region for over 125,000 years, despite substantial changes in Aldabra’s habitat and land area (Taylor et al. 1979).  The species survived very low rainfall around the 1950s (Stoddart & Walsh 1979), including years drier than any since 1968.  Rainfall data for Aldabra are fragmented and will require expert analysis.  Gerlach’s data and analyses require correction:  1981 had c. 970 mm (not 1702), and 2006 was the wettest on record (1787 mm).  Fuller data (including 1984-1993) show generally dry periods between both 1980 - 1991, and 1999 - 2004.

The statistical handling looks to my untrained eye like an unmitigated disaster as well.

I think the Gerlach paper may well fall into the category of "so bad that it would be too embarrassing to publish a rebuttal pointing out all the problems. You can see why Hambler had no joy with the journal.

 


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