Steve Jewson on Bayesian statistics
Sep 26, 2013
Bishop Hill in Climate: MetOffice, Climate: Models, Climate: Statistics

Steve Jewson is the statistician whose trenchant comments on climatologists' use and misuse of Bayesian statistics was discussed here some months ago.

This presentation he gave to a conference at the University of Reading is in similar vein, but goes beyond Bayes' theorem to areas such as the UKCP09 climate predictions.


Nic Lewis has analysed the impact of these additional subjective factors:

Oh dear.

His conclusion - that the Met Office could easily strip the subjectivity out of their predictions - seems to me to be of critical importance. Time, I would say, for the empanelling of the review that Nigel Lawson called for.

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