Ducking, diving, dodging, weaving
Jul 3, 2013
Bishop Hill in Climate: Models

There was an interesting written answer in the House of Lords yesterday, with Baroness Verma singularly failing to answer a question about falsifying climate models.

Lord Donoughue (Labour): To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether the Met Office has set a date by which, in the event of no further increase in global temperatures, it would reassess the validity of its general circulation models.

Baroness Verma (Whip, House of Lords; Conservative): General circulation models developed by the Met Office are continually reassessed against observations and compared against international climate models through workshops and peer reviewed publications. The validity of general circulation modelling has been established for over four decades, as evident in the peer-reviewed literature. Such models are further developed in light of improvements in scientific understanding of the climate system and technical advances in computing capability.

Short term fluctuations in global temperature do not invalidate general circulation models, or determine timelines for model development. The long term projection remains that the underlying warming trend will continue in response to continuing increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.

It was Baroness Verma who was on the receiving end of Lord Donoughue's questions on surface temperature trends, and her ability to duck, dive, dodge and weave, often at the same time, was something to behold. It was many, many weeks before Lord D was able to pin her down to an answer.

Here we go again.

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