The Vision Prize describes itself an "an online platform for communicating expert opinion on climate risk" and seems to be essentially a fairly basic online poll.
I was intrigued by the way its experts assessed climate sensitivity. The relevant question was what the effect on temperature relative to the year 2000 will be if carbon dioxide concentrations reach 550ppm (i.e the first doubling, expected around mid-century).
Here are the results:
;)
The mode is 1.5-2.0°C. Given that this is temperatures relative to the present day, we have to add say 0.8°C to get the "climate sensitivity" figure, which would be 2.3-2.8°C. It seems to me that this figure is hard to justify if transient climate response is 1.3°C and effective climate sensitivity is 1.7°C, as seems likely from the empirical evidence.
Perhaps then the results are affected by climatologists who lie to promote political action.