Lewis 2013 as an "outlier"
Apr 19, 2013
Bishop Hill in Climate: sensitivity

One of the strangest things about Dana Nuccitelli's article about the Lewis 2013 paper is its twin-pronged attack - alleging that Lewis misrepresented the match between the mode of his estimate and that of Aldrin et al, and suggesting that the Lewis result is an outlier.

In the graph below, I have redrawn Lewis 2013 and a selection of other papers: Aldrin et al, Forster and Gregory, and Troy Masters' new paper. The IPCC's 2-4.5deg range is shown as the shaded area.

With Lewis's PDF sitting in the middle of the bunch, Nuccitelli's position is shown to be baseless.  I've added a line through the mode of Lewis, which you can see matches Aldrin et al almost exactly. So when Nuccitelli says Lewis is misrepresenting the match between his findings and Aldrin's, it's easy to see that this is, ahem, a stretch.

There are other papers that could be shown on the plot - Ring et al, Lindzen and Choi and so on, but I think this handful is good enough to make the point: there is simply no way Lewis 2013 can be seen as an outlier.

 

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