Bishop Hill Has the UK government just killed the shale gas future?
Apr 17, 2012 Climate: other I'm grateful to Don Keiller for pointing out what may amount to a hidden agenda in today's fracking announcement. Here's Don's comment:
I'm not at all convinced that this is a victory for common sense, more like a "stealth killing".
"Under a proposed "traffic light" control system, a "red light" would be triggered by any tremor measuring 0.5 local magnitude or higher, meaning fracking should stop and safety procedures such as allowing water to flow back to the surface should be carried out."
According to the Richter scale an earth tremor of less than 2 is described as "micro", "not felt" and "continual".
Hence fracking will be hamstrung by background tremors.
Marvellous!
Bishop Hill
Nick Grealy, the shale gas expert, tweets in response to my query about this issue:
@aDissentient Not a problem industry geologists tell me
Reader Comments (62)
I could I assume kill it - and it's great Don pointed this out. However, this could also discredit whichever 'green' civil servant slipped this into the draft. Let's pray it goes that way.
Sounds like the starter's pistol may in fact be a sniper's rifle?
Let's hope not.
I don't think so, if you read it, all it says is that a large enough tremor would mean stopping production until water flowed back out, and things stabilised.
Big Yin
How often do 0.5 quakes occur and how long does it take for the water to flow out?
We will struggle our way there eventually after making our way through the minefield...only to find that by the time we do the price of gas will have collapsed and it will not be worth our while exploiting this resource.
I suppose it will keep for later. I do not know how governments can turn down this tax opportunity. Perhaps they are afraid some future government will gain the benefit.
According to the DECC website about this this:
If there was such a thing as a kind of social or political pressure that would represent the public -who would benefit from jobs and cheaper energy - and be listened to, then that would be nice, but I don't think that yet exists.
So for now I guess we wait to see the usual various existing lobbyists with axes to grind to start making a noise and just hope that practicality wins out.
Well Cuadrilla seem happy.
http://www.cuadrillaresources.com/news/cuadrilla-news/article/response-to-decc-review-on-seismic-events-2/
Jack Savage:
This had occured to me too. Suspicious minds think alike :)
But whoever gives a genuine green light to fracking will be seen as heroes down the line. I can't really imagine any of today's leaders wanting instead to go down as the ones who caused the UK to miss the boat as the USA and many other countries benefit greatly from this new, cleaner energy source. My hunch remains that a far-too-green-for-anyone-else's-good DECC civil servant is the culprit. It will be interesting to hear Cuadrilla's public response and then the government's.
A magnitude 0.5 earthquake is equivalent to 85 grams of TNT.
I think I also heard somebody on Sky News this morning say it was equivalent to a bus going past your house but I was still mostly asleep so I'm not to sure.
When natural gas prices get high enough, and much of the rest of the world is using fracking without problems to reduce energy costs, the politics of this issue in the UK may change. But I would not bet on it; if a Tory government effectively blocks fracking with nutty rules like this one, it is difficult to imagine the things a future Labor government might do to stop fracking.
One of the best things to do, would be to lobby for the Richter scale to be abandoned and a linear one put in place.
So people can really understand the relative energy releases.
So the last major japanese earthquake would be a factor 1 billion and fracking earthquakes would be factor the same as someone walking up nextdoor's stairs.
I noted early this morning that the recommended 0.5 magnitude earthquake limit is absurdly low. Earthquakes of greater magnitude occur around the UK regularly (something I hadn't previously realised) and are barely noticed: see this interesting British Geological Survey site. (Later I agreed with Don that the 0.5 limit is likely to severely limit the potential of this critically important resource.) Then James P pointed out that that site doesn't bother showing anything below magnitude 1, prompting me to post a link to this even more interesting BGS "Timeline" that isn't bothered with anything below 1.5.
Truly the 0.5 limit seems absurdly low.
Here is the British Geological Survey of earthwuakes in the last 50 days:
http://earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/earthquakes/recent_uk_events.html
One has to wonder what magnitude of earthquake would be generated by (eventually, perhaps) pumping CO2 underground at high pressure...?
But then again, any earthquakes produced by such a barmy scheme presumably 'wouldn't count'...
More gems from the report
The panel of experts denied that Cuadrilla had behaved irresponsibly, despite continuing to inject liquid into the shale bed following a 2.3 magnitude earthquake well above the new 0.5 magnitude recommended limit.
Prof Peter Styles, of Keele University, one of the report's authors, said: "We are erring on the conservative side."
I would say so. So conservative that it will be impossible to discriminate tremors caused by fracking from the background noise.
Check this out
http://www.quakes.bgs.ac.uk/earthquakes/UKseismic.html
Note that they don't even plot sub 2 magnitude tremors- I suspect if they did the map would be covered in red.
This report is just another example of the "precautionary principle" followed to its logical and meaningless end.
A series of small earthquakes is preferable to one larger one, it may actually be safer to have Fracking that not have Fracking.
Robin Guenier: I just noticed you were the first to point this out on the previous thread but (I assume) you were held in moderation because you went to the trouble of providing a link. Good behaviour not rewarded - to protect us all against pseudonymous spammers. The online world is never totally fair, even on Bishop Hill - but thanks anyway. And I see from Twitter that Leo Hickman has been chiding the Bish for not reading his tweet of 8:41 am:
So Leo was there first of all. Credit where credit's due I guess :)
The UK seismograph network is designed to detect nearly all magnitude 2.0 earthquakes in mainland UK.
Larger earthquakes occur less frequently than smaller ones. The relationship is exponential, ie there are ten times as many magnitude 4 or larger earthquakes larger in a given time period than magnitude 5 or larger earthquakes.
On average, the UK may expect:
an earthquake of 3.7 ML or larger every 1 year
an earthquake of 4.7 ML or larger every 10 years
an earthquake of 5.6 ML or larger every 100 years.
So you could expect 1,000 earthquakes of 0.7 ML or larger every year - assuming they could be detected.
http://earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/monitoring/detection_stats.html
I wonder if we're seeing some classic civil service moves here. The report will recommend the low limit, the consultation will raise questions, and some clever wording will retain the mention somewhere of the Magnitude 0.5 figure, but the operational regulations will allow the proverbial coach and horses to pass elegantly around the thorny bush planted in the middle of the road via a well paved and not too diversionary a path, with some stern finger wagging as all parties involved collect knighthood and trebles.
Richard Drake: my post was at 8:44. I don't think the good Bish saw it.
Robin, it failed to disturb my seismograph too :)
Cumbrian Lad: you summarise well my considered view, having entertained Jack Savage's dystopian one for a moment - that's all before hearing that Cuadrilla are happy and so is Nick Grealy. Too much government, too much regulation and too many cosy relationships between energy outfits like Cuadrilla and the insiders looking for knighthoods - all this can't stop shale gas being a major blessing for the UK and worldwide. That's my considered view. James Delingpole mentioned the existence of God at this point a while back - so of course I won't :)
Well, we are a pessimistic lot, aren't we?
I would have thought a sensible strategy would be for Cuadrilla simply to accept the conditions, and get fracking under way.
Use it as a trial. Then publish a report after a reasonable length of time, detailing all "earthquakes" in the area and any cases of flames belching out of water taps and incinerating the tap-turner.
Then they've got hard, indisputable facts to use against their opponents.
Or support for the other side of course, just as the case may be.
The Leopard in the Basement said:
There is one in Westminster. At times it is as if they have forgotten their role as representatives of the people.
Prof Peter Styles, of Keele University, one of the report's authors, said: "We are erring on the conservative side."
I once heard that a man of seventy years would have accumulated more radioactivity in his bones than could be buried in the UK without a special license.
I posted a couple of interesting (I think so anyway) on the Fracking to resume thread.
Re: Paul Boyce
You are an optimist aren't you.
After a period of time, every single earthquake anywhere in the UK will be ascribed to fracking (we never used to have them before). Every case of poor water quality, strange smells in the streets or countryside or unexplained fire will be due to fracking. Anything bad that has even the remotest possibility of being associated with fracking will blamed on it.
Paul Boyce is right to be an optimist about shale gas. Everyone is right to question whether DECC has got the regulation right. TerryS is way too certain in terms of future gloom. Hope spring eternal for a purpose.
^^^
.. and Gasland will be shown and recommended everywhere.
If there's one thing the Greens fear and loathe, it's cheap, available energy for all.
It busts all their goals, in one.
Richard Black is in full whinge mode about fracking equating it to the GM foods scare and says the economics only make sense with CCS technology. Usual greenwash stuff.
Someone should point out to him the success of shale gas in the US and how cheap energy is benefiting millions and how manufacturing businesses are returning to the US.
Terry S - yes, I am an optimist - very much so.
You would appear to be a pessimist . Time will tell which of us was correct.
Let's not forget, though, thar's money in them thar shales - lots and lots of it, which might just have an influence on people's attitudes, don't you think?
You may be right - "after a time every single earthquake anywhere in the UK will be ascribed to fracking". But those doing the ascribing stand to make themselves a laughing stock. The more hysterical and daft the attacks the better - give them enough rope and let's see what they can do with it.
You, Terry S, seem to see only problems. I don't see problems. I see double-edged swords, if you'll forgive me for mixing my metaphors.
They don't like those double-edged swords up 'em, as Lance-Corporal Jones would say.
Would the 0.5 limit shut down what is left of our coal mining industry. I believe tremors due to coal mining used to be routine.
My missus says if I don't rock her world over 0.7 once a week I get in trouble, could be a way out for me.
It's a good job the greens weren't around when we started mining coal.
RD
"Leo was there first of all"
I think the Guardianistas were up early today!
“Would the 0.5 limit shut down what is left of our coal mining industry?”
It sounds like it would shut down a lot of things, if rigorously applied. Buses, trains, vibrating rollers - not to mention Shevva.. :-)
It's the use of ridiculously low radiation limits that have been the bugbear of the nuclear industry and have made nuclear power much more expensive than it need be. One can seen shale gas being much more expensive than need be because of unfounded scares made by environmental activists such as FoE and Greenpeace.
Drill a hole, frak, connect a 2Bar regulator and a pipe from there to the gas grid (already in place). Job done, simple cheap. I wonder what the price will be once the stuff reaches the central heating boiler - peanuts? Not on your life: it has to be rationed to inflict a meaningful tax take. What we have is step one of the rationing in place with the greens being used to justify it. Another blinder played.
BH @ at 1:25 PM
"How often do 0.5 quakes occur ...........?"
Nearly every time a 38-tonne truck goes over a speed-bump at > 10mph.
Sky News just repeated the allegation that fracking can cause tap water to be contaminated with methane, along with some footage of taps lighting up.
cf Gasland debunked:
http://thegwpf.org/energy-news/2485-gaslands-fracking-nonsense-.html
Granada reports "Fracking to restart".
http://www.itv.com/news/granada/2012-04-17/fracking-to-restart/
However:: "A DECC spokesman said: "No decision has been taken on whether to allow fracking to resume at Cuadrilla's sites in Lancashire.
"We are grateful to the authors of the report and have launched a call for evidence to give people a chance to express their views on the report. Responses to the call for evidence will be carefully considered before ministers make a final decision."
A 0.5 ML earthquake equates to 360 kJoules. The amount of energy required to raise 1 litre of water from 15 Celsius to Boiling Point is 356 kJ - enough to make 4 - 5 cups of tea!
Well, DECC as an unbiased, independent, well informed collection of civil servants acting in the "best interests" of the environment and the population?
A short romp around their web site will disabuse anybody of that illusion. It's not one person stuffing a stick in the spokes - FOE and Gweenpiece are on the fast dial lists.
A corrupted institution struggling to maintain a twisted and contrived world view against the flow of observed reality more like.
I hope Frack Nation, the movie does a fair job of eviscerating the scaremongering gits trying to do down this method of gas extraction. see: http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1009530098/fracknation
Personally, I'd like to see the return of medieval punishments for the malicious gossiping that most of the print media and particularly the BBC are indulging in on an industrial scale at the moment. .
Richard Drake: "many other countries benefit greatly from this new, cleaner energy source"
Cleaner? Steady on Sir! That is blasphemy here, I'll have you know ;-) Now if the'd found shale oil, that would be cause for real celebration!
Gasland footage gets an uncritical romp across our screens on C4 News...
@woodentop
I'd wager that C4 and BBC will try to ignore Frack Nation - the usual despicable bias by omission - bunch of Bexley councilors.
The 1865 Locomotive Act required all road locomotives, which included automobiles, to travel at a maximum of 4 mph (6 km/h) in the country and 2 mph (3 km/h) in towns and have a crew of three travel, one of whom should carry a red flag walking 60 yards (55 m) ahead of each vehicle. The 1896 Act removed the need for the crew of three and raised the speed to 14 mph (23 km/h).
Interesting article from Reuters here. An extract:
If magnitude 0.5 is so small, it will be equally hard for the naysayers (deniers?) to detect, especially if it's so easily confused with passing trucks. They might have to insist the figure is made high enough for them to pick up!