Protomodels
Feb 1, 2012
Bishop Hill in Climate: Models

To the layman, the word "model" implies a scaled down version of something, correct in all its salient details. We all know the kind of thing.

A climate model is not like that. As everyone knows, climate models are not validated out of sample and we don't know if any of their salient details are correct. Some features of the real world are reproduced on a "hindcast" basis, but the ability of models to make meaningful temperature predictions is more in the realms of hope than established fact.

I therefore wonder if the IPCC should adopt the word "protomodel" to distinguish unvalidated "models" from all-singing all-dancing all-validated models. This would be a snappy way to keep the uncertainty in the public's mind - something that needs to be done to allow policymakers to make the correct decisions.

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