Food security is a subject that's enjoyed a little splurge of interest in the last couple of days. The government's new science adviser, Professor John Beddington, is reported as saying that the food shortages are likely to affect us long before climate change.
This is interesting, because one of the main factors behind the increase in food prices has been the diversion of farming land to biofuels production, ostensibly as a contribution to the "fight against global warming". So here's a classic case of the cure being worse than the affliction. Thank-you, greens.
Of course, no government scientific adviser is allowed out in public without a genuflection before the global warming goddess, and Beddington is no exception. His comments include the obligatory reference to climate change which is (obviously) going to make things much worse. It always does, doesn't it?
Now, there is a bit of evidence that warming will reduce crop yields, but these claims are not generally accepted, not least because historically warming has lead to times of plenty while colder climate has lead to shortage. There is much more certainty over the fertilising effect of more CO2 in the atmosphere. With CO2 levels continuing to go up, and temperatures steady for the last ten years, we should actually be expecting higher yields. And that's before you factor in the impact of genetic modification which is now pretty widespread, outside backward places like Europe.
It's certainly true to say that crop yields have been rising dramatically in recent years, at least in the US:
If you look at the chart, it's clear that in the last fifty years yields have nearly quadrupled. Given that agriculture in much of the rest of the world is nowhere near this productive, there would appear to be enormous scope to increase production.
All we need to happen is for governments to stop interfering, to stop putting up barriers to trade, so that surpluses find their way to places of shortage, to stop the roll out of GM crops so that the benefits can be enjoyed by farmers and consumers everywhere, and for government chief scientists to stop playing the Cassandra and stick to the facts.